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Deportivo Cuenca vs Manta FC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 24 ·Tuesday, August 11, 2026, 00:00

Deportivo Cuenca

PPG 1.36 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Manta FC

PPG 0.45 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.5% vs bookmaker-implied 59.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.5%0-18.5%0-22.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-022.0%1-110.7%1-22.6%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.8%2-16.7%2-21.6%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-05.8%3-12.8%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-11.2%4+-20.3%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.5% 59.5% 1.68 -13.5%

Draw 26.9% 28.6% 3.50 -3.5%

Away win 21.6% 19.0% 5.25 +8.0%

Over 2.5 37.0% 45.5% 2.20 -18.6%

Over 3.5 20.1% 23.8% 4.20 -9.3%

BTTS 44.6% 48.8% 2.05 -8.6%

Home O1.5 36.9% 51.3% 1.95 -28.0%

Away O1.5 16.7% 22.2% 4.50 -14.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 95 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 9.4%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob44.6%

H 52% / xG 1.3-0.5 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 22.0%

#2 0–0 17.5%

#3 2–0 13.8%

#4 1–1 10.7%

#5 0–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Cuenca1.3

Manta FC0.5

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.0% · O3.5 PROB 20.1%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO CUENCA · PPG 1.36

MANTA FC · PPG 0.45

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.77 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Cuenca (H) 51.5%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -13.5%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -3.5%

Manta FC (A) 21.6%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +8.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Cuenca face Manta FC in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Tuesday, August 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Cuenca a 52% chance, the draw 27% and Manta FC 22%, so Deportivo Cuenca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Deportivo Cuenca and 0.5 for Manta FC (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Cuenca are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 0.45 for Manta FC. This match finished 1-2.

Deportivo Cuenca vs Manta FC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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