Today / Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B / El Nacional vs San Antonio

El Nacional vs San Antonio Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B

Matchday 21 ·Thursday, August 13, 2026, 20:30

El Nacional logo
El Nacional
PPG 0.70 · HOME
VS
UPCOMING
San Antonio logo
San Antonio
PPG 0.90 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.1%0-113.4%0-26.9%0-32.3%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.3%1-113.5%1-26.9%1-32.4%1-4+0.7%2 2-06.7%2-16.8%2-23.5%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.2%3-12.3%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 37.0%
Draw 33.4%
Away win 29.6%
Over 2.5 41.2%
Over 3.5 21.1%
BTTS 47.7%
Home O1.5 30.2%
Away O1.5 31.4%

League track record

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%
O2.5 50%
BTTS 72%
Score Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE
xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob47.7%

D 33% / xG 1.0-1.0 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%
#2 0–0 13.1%
#3 0–1 13.4%
#4 1–0 13.3%
#5 1–2 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

El Nacional1.0
San Antonio1.0

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.2% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

EL NACIONAL · PPG 0.70

SAN ANTONIO · PPG 0.90

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...
45%
HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.01, combined xG 2.03 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

El Nacional (H) 37.0%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 33.4%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
San Antonio (A) 29.6%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

El Nacional face San Antonio in Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B on Thursday, August 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives El Nacional a 37% chance, the draw 33% and San Antonio 30%, so El Nacional are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for El Nacional and 1.0 for San Antonio (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, El Nacional are averaging 0.70 points per game versus 0.90 for San Antonio.

PredictVantage

Free daily football predictions across 240+ leagues. A Poisson-based model analyses team form, attack and defence strength, and live bookmaker odds to surface value bets — updated every day, graded every night.

18+ only. PredictVantage is for entertainment and informational purposes only. All predictions are model-generated and do not guarantee any outcome. Match dates and kick-off times come from third-party data and may change — confirm with official sources before betting. Gambling involves risk — never bet more than you can afford to lose. BeGambleAware.org