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Guayaquil City FC vs Emelec Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 24 ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 00:00

Guayaquil City FC

PPG 1.45 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Emelec

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 49.7% vs bookmaker-implied 35.2% — a clear edge.

+41.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.2%0-110.2%0-23.4%0-30.8%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.4%1-112.4%1-24.2%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.1%2-17.5%2-22.5%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.5%3-13.0%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.2%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 35.2% 2.84 +41.1%

Draw 27.9% 32.8% 3.05 -8.9%

Away win 22.4% 39.2% 2.55 -25.7%

Over 2.5 42.7% 39.2% 2.55 +8.9%

Over 3.5 21.1% 20.0% 5.00 +3.3%

BTTS 47.7% 48.8% 2.05 -2.2%

Home O1.5 31.8% 31.3% 3.20 +1.8%

Away O1.5 17.2% 34.7% 2.88 -30.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 94 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 9.4%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.7%

H 50% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 15.2%

#2 1–0 18.4%

#3 1–1 12.4%

#4 2–0 11.1%

#5 0–1 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guayaquil City FC1.2

Emelec0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

GUAYAQUIL CITY FC · PPG 1.45

EMELEC · PPG 0.82

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.54 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Guayaquil City FC (H) 49.7%

ODDS 2.84 · IMPLIED 35.2% EV +41.1%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -8.9%

Emelec (A) 22.4%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -25.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guayaquil City FC face Emelec in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guayaquil City FC a 50% chance, the draw 28% and Emelec 22%, so Guayaquil City FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Guayaquil City FC and 0.7 for Emelec (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guayaquil City FC are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 0.82 for Emelec. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +23.2%. This match finished 0-0.

Guayaquil City FC vs Emelec Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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