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Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 19:00

Bahia

PPG 1.55 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Vasco DA Gama

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 58.4% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-14.8%0-22.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.3%1-19.8%1-24.2%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.4%2-19.9%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.7%3-16.6%3-22.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.2%4+-15.3%4+-22.3%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.5% 51.0% 1.96 +10.7%

Draw 22.3% 28.6% 3.50 -13.2%

Away win 21.1% 27.4% 3.65 -13.8%

Over 2.5 58.4% 54.6% 1.83 +6.9%

Over 3.5 34.9% 32.3% 3.10 +8.2%

BTTS 53.1% 58.8% 1.70 -9.7%

Home O1.5 55.4% 51.8% 1.93 +6.9%

Away O1.5 21.6% 34.7% 2.88 -22.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 101 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 56% / xG 2.0-0.9 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.4%

#2 1–1 9.8%

#3 1–0 11.3%

#4 2–1 9.9%

#5 3–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bahia2.0

Vasco DA Gama0.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.4% · O3.5 PROB 34.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BAHIA · PPG 1.55

VASCO DA GAMA · PPG 0.44

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.15 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Bahia (H) 56.5%

ODDS 1.96 · IMPLIED 51.0% EV +10.7%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -13.2%

Vasco DA Gama (A) 21.1%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -13.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bahia face Vasco DA Gama in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bahia a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Vasco DA Gama 21%, so Bahia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Bahia and 0.9 for Vasco DA Gama (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bahia are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 0.44 for Vasco DA Gama. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +20.0%. This match finished 0-0.

Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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