Today / Brazil - Serie A / Remo vs Atletico-MG

Remo vs Atletico-MG Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 21:30

Remo

PPG 1.30 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Atletico-MG

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-19.4%0-25.3%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.5%1-112.8%1-27.1%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.8%2-18.7%2-24.8%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.5%3-13.9%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.8%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.6% 34.7% 2.88 +28.4%

Draw 27.0% 30.8% 3.25 -7.3%

Away win 28.4% 41.7% 2.40 -19.1%

Over 2.5 50.3% 47.6% 2.10 +5.6%

Over 3.5 28.8% 26.3% 3.80 +5.7%

BTTS 53.1% 55.6% 1.80 -4.4%

Home O1.5 37.4% 36.4% 2.75 +2.9%

Away O1.5 35.4% 41.7% 2.40 -15.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 101 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.1%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.5%

#3 1–0 11.5%

#4 2–1 8.7%

#5 2–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Remo1.4

Atletico-MG1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

REMO · PPG 1.30

ATLETICO-MG · PPG 1.09

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.24, combined xG 2.47 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Remo (H) 44.6%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +28.4%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -7.3%

Atletico-MG (A) 28.4%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -19.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Remo face Atletico-MG in Brazil - Serie A on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Remo a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Atletico-MG 28%, so Remo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Remo and 1.1 for Atletico-MG (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Remo are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 1.09 for Atletico-MG. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +14.1%. This match finished 2-2.

Remo vs Atletico-MG Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Serie A Predictions