Today / Brazil - Serie A / RB Bragantino vs Corinthians

RB Bragantino vs Corinthians Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 21:30

RB Bragantino

PPG 1.70 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Corinthians

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.2% vs bookmaker-implied 47.2% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.0%0-19.3%0-23.3%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.2%1-112.3%1-24.4%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.4%2-18.2%2-22.9%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.1%3-13.6%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-11.6%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.2% 47.2% 2.12 +6.4%

Draw 27.4% 31.3% 3.20 -7.4%

Away win 22.4% 28.6% 3.50 -13.0%

Over 2.5 45.8% 45.5% 2.20 +0.8%

Over 3.5 25.8% 23.8% 4.20 +5.0%

BTTS 48.4% 52.6% 1.90 -8.0%

Home O1.5 37.4% 43.5% 2.30 -14.0%

Away O1.5 17.4% 30.3% 3.30 -25.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 101 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.4%

H 50% / xG 1.3-0.7 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.2%

#2 0–0 13.0%

#3 1–1 12.3%

#4 2–0 11.4%

#5 2–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

RB Bragantino1.3

Corinthians0.7

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.8%

Form & verdict PPG

RB BRAGANTINO · PPG 1.70

CORINTHIANS · PPG 1.10

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.61 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

RB Bragantino (H) 50.2%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV +6.4%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.4%

Corinthians (A) 22.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -13.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

RB Bragantino face Corinthians in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives RB Bragantino a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Corinthians 22%, so RB Bragantino are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for RB Bragantino and 0.7 for Corinthians (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, RB Bragantino are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.10 for Corinthians. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.0%. This match finished 0-2.

RB Bragantino vs Corinthians Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Serie A Predictions