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Santos vs Atletico Paranaense Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 21:30

Santos

PPG 1.64 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Atletico Paranaense

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-18.9%0-25.1%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.8%1-112.5%1-27.2%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.6%2-18.8%2-25.1%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.6%3-14.1%3-22.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.4% 49.0% 2.04 -11.5%

Draw 26.4% 31.3% 3.20 -9.3%

Away win 30.2% 27.0% 3.70 +11.7%

Over 2.5 53.4% 48.8% 2.05 +9.5%

Over 3.5 31.1% 27.4% 3.65 +13.5%

BTTS 54.6% 55.6% 1.80 -1.7%

Home O1.5 45.4% 47.6% 2.10 -4.7%

Away O1.5 35.4% 31.3% 3.20 +13.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 101 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 43% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.7%

#3 1–0 10.8%

#4 2–1 8.8%

#5 2–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santos1.4

Atletico Paranaense1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 31.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTOS · PPG 1.64

ATLETICO PARANAENSE · PPG 1.10

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.25 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Santos (H) 43.4%

ODDS 2.04 · IMPLIED 49.0% EV -11.5%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -9.3%

Atletico Paranaense (A) 30.2%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +11.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Santos face Atletico Paranaense in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santos a 43% chance, the draw 26% and Atletico Paranaense 30%, so Santos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Santos and 1.2 for Atletico Paranaense (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santos are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.10 for Atletico Paranaense. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +13.5%. This match finished 0-2.

Santos vs Atletico Paranaense Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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