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Flamengo vs Vitoria Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 22:30

Flamengo

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Vitoria

PPG 0.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 68.0% vs bookmaker-implied 82.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-12.6%0-20.8%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-010.6%1-16.6%1-22.1%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.6%2-18.5%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.6%3-17.2%3-22.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-013.6%4+-18.5%4+-22.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.0% 82.6% 1.21 -17.7%

Draw 17.1% 17.5% 5.70 -1.5%

Away win 15.0% 6.9% 14.50 +70.5%

Over 2.5 60.4% 61.7% 1.62 -2.1%

Over 3.5 37.3% 39.2% 2.55 -4.9%

BTTS 49.6% 45.5% 2.20 +9.1%

Home O1.5 63.0% 75.2% 1.33 -16.2%

Away O1.5 17.4% 15.4% 6.50 +7.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 101 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob49.6%

H 68% / xG 2.6-0.6 / O2.5 60% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 13.6%

#2 3–0 11.6%

#3 1–0 10.6%

#4 2–1 8.5%

#5 1–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Flamengo2.6

Vitoria0.6

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

FLAMENGO · PPG 2.00

VITORIA · PPG 0.36

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.93 for Home, form 2.00 vs 0.36 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Flamengo (H) 68.0%

ODDS 1.21 · IMPLIED 82.6% EV -17.7%

Draw 17.1%

ODDS 5.70 · IMPLIED 17.5% EV -1.5%

Vitoria (A) 15.0%

ODDS 14.50 · IMPLIED 6.9% EV +70.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Flamengo face Vitoria in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Flamengo a 68% chance, the draw 17% and Vitoria 15%, so Flamengo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Flamengo and 0.6 for Vitoria (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Flamengo are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.36 for Vitoria. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +30.1%. This match finished 2-0.

Flamengo vs Vitoria Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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