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Gremio vs Sao Paulo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 19:00

Gremio

PPG 1.80 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Sao Paulo

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-18.9%0-24.3%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.2%1-112.6%1-26.1%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.3%2-18.9%2-24.3%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.4%3-14.2%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.9% 43.9% 2.28 +9.2%

Draw 26.7% 31.3% 3.20 -8.7%

Away win 25.4% 31.7% 3.15 -12.0%

Over 2.5 50.3% 48.8% 2.05 +3.1%

Over 3.5 28.8% 27.4% 3.65 +3.1%

BTTS 53.1% 56.5% 1.77 -6.0%

Home O1.5 45.4% 43.5% 2.30 +4.4%

Away O1.5 27.7% 34.7% 2.88 -12.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 101 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.1%

H 48% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 13.2%

#3 0–0 9.3%

#4 2–0 9.3%

#5 2–1✓ 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gremio1.4

Sao Paulo1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GREMIO · PPG 1.80

SAO PAULO · PPG 0.82

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.45, combined xG 2.37 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Gremio (H) 47.9%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV +9.2%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -8.7%

Sao Paulo (A) 25.4%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -12.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gremio face Sao Paulo in Brazil - Serie A on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gremio a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Sao Paulo 25%, so Gremio are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Gremio and 1.0 for Sao Paulo (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gremio are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.82 for Sao Paulo. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +5.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Gremio vs Sao Paulo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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