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Palmeiras vs Internacional Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 19:00

Palmeiras

PPG 2.30 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Internacional

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-14.3%0-21.3%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-014.2%1-18.8%1-22.7%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.6%2-19.0%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.0%3-16.2%3-21.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.2%4+-15.1%4+-21.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.6% 63.7% 1.57 -0.1%

Draw 21.2% 27.0% 3.70 -12.9%

Away win 15.2% 16.7% 6.00 -5.3%

Over 2.5 53.4% 50.0% 2.00 +6.8%

Over 3.5 32.1% 29.0% 3.45 +10.8%

BTTS 48.4% 51.3% 1.95 -5.6%

Home O1.5 60.3% 57.1% 1.75 +5.5%

Away O1.5 17.4% 22.2% 4.50 -13.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 101 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.4%

H 64% / xG 2.1-0.6 / O2.5 53% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.6%

#2 1–0 14.2%

#3 1–1 8.8%

#4 3–0 10.0%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Palmeiras2.1

Internacional0.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.1%

Form & verdict PPG

PALMEIRAS · PPG 2.30

INTERNACIONAL · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.43 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Palmeiras (H) 63.6%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -0.1%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -12.9%

Internacional (A) 15.2%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -5.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Palmeiras face Internacional in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Palmeiras a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Internacional 15%, so Palmeiras are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Palmeiras and 0.6 for Internacional (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Palmeiras are averaging 2.30 points per game versus 1.00 for Internacional. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.8%. This match finished 0-0.

Palmeiras vs Internacional Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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