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Miedz Legnica vs Gornik Leczna Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Regular Season - 29 ·Monday, April 20, 2026, 16:00

Miedz Legnica

PPG 2.15 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Gornik Leczna

PPG 0.54 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-12.8%0-21.8%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-05.5%1-17.1%1-24.6%1-32.0%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.0%2-19.0%2-25.8%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.9%3-17.6%3-24.9%3-32.1%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-06.9%4+-18.9%4+-25.8%4+-32.5%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.4% 61.7% 1.62 +4.3%

Draw 17.7% 27.0% 3.70 -34.5%

Away win 17.8% 21.7% 4.60 -18.1%

Over 2.5 73.6% — — —

Over 3.5 53.3% — — —

BTTS 66.8% 60.6% 1.65 +10.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -4.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 75%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob66.8%

H 64% / xG 2.5-1.3 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.0%

#2 3–1 7.6%

#3 1–1 7.1%

#4 2–0 7.0%

#5 3–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Miedz Legnica2.5

Gornik Leczna1.3

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.6% · O3.5 PROB 53.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MIEDZ LEGNICA · PPG 2.15

GORNIK LECZNA · PPG 0.54

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.15) vs P(Home)=64.4%

Win probability 1X2

Miedz Legnica (H) 64.4%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV +4.3%

Draw 17.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -34.5%

Gornik Leczna (A) 17.8%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -18.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Miedz Legnica face Gornik Leczna in Poland - I Liga on Monday, April 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Miedz Legnica a 64% chance, the draw 18% and Gornik Leczna 18%, so Miedz Legnica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Miedz Legnica and 1.3 for Gornik Leczna (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Miedz Legnica are averaging 2.15 points per game versus 0.54 for Gornik Leczna. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +10.2%. This match finished 0-2.

Miedz Legnica vs Gornik Leczna Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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