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FBC Melgar vs FC Cajamarca Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 20:30

FBC Melgar

PPG 2.20 · HOME

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

FC Cajamarca

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 68.1% vs bookmaker-implied 77.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-11.7%0-20.7%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-06.4%1-15.2%1-22.1%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.7%2-17.9%2-23.2%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.9%3-18.1%3-23.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-016.1%4+-113.2%4+-25.4%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.1% 77.5% 1.29 -12.2%

Draw 17.0% 19.2% 5.20 -7.0%

Away win 14.9% 10.0% 10.00 +29.4%

Over 2.5 67.2% 64.5% 1.55 +4.2%

Over 3.5 44.3% 42.6% 2.35 +4.1%

BTTS 54.6% 54.1% 1.85 +1.0%

Home O1.5 78.3% 74.1% 1.35 +5.7%

Away O1.5 20.4% 21.1% 4.75 -1.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 83 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 51%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)3.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob54.6%

H 68% / xG 3.1-0.8 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 9.9%

#2 2–0 9.7%

#3 3–1 8.1%

#4 2–1 7.9%

#5 4–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FBC Melgar3.1

FC Cajamarca0.8

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 44.3%

Form & verdict PPG

FBC MELGAR · PPG 2.20

FC CAJAMARCA · PPG 0.50

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.24 for Home, form 2.20 vs 0.50 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

FBC Melgar (H) 68.1%

ODDS 1.29 · IMPLIED 77.5% EV -12.2%

Draw 17.0%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV -7.0%

FC Cajamarca (A) 14.9%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV +29.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

FBC Melgar face FC Cajamarca in Peru - Primera División on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FBC Melgar a 68% chance, the draw 17% and FC Cajamarca 15%, so FBC Melgar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for FBC Melgar and 0.8 for FC Cajamarca (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FBC Melgar are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 0.50 for FC Cajamarca. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +7.1%. This match finished 2-4.

FBC Melgar vs FC Cajamarca Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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