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Juan Pablo II College vs Atletico Grau Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 20:30

Juan Pablo II College

PPG 1.20 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Atletico Grau

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.5 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 50.3% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-17.3%0-23.3%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.0%1-111.8%1-25.3%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.5%2-19.5%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.6%3-15.1%3-22.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-13.0%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.8% 43.5% 2.30 +16.8%

Draw 26.4% 32.3% 3.10 -10.9%

Away win 22.8% 31.3% 3.20 -16.2%

Over 2.5 50.3% 47.6% 2.10 +5.6%

Over 3.5 28.8% 27.0% 3.70 +3.9%

BTTS 52.1% 57.1% 1.75 -8.8%

Home O1.5 47.5% 43.5% 2.30 +9.3%

Away O1.5 23.9% 34.7% 2.88 -18.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 83 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 51%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.1%

H 51% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–0 13.0%

#3 2–0 10.5%

#4 0–0✓ 8.1%

#5 2–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Juan Pablo II College1.6

Atletico Grau0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

JUAN PABLO II COLLEGE · PPG 1.20

ATLETICO GRAU · PPG 0.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.71 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Juan Pablo II College (H) 50.8%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +16.8%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -10.9%

Atletico Grau (A) 22.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -16.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Juan Pablo II College face Atletico Grau in Peru - Primera División on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Juan Pablo II College a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Atletico Grau 23%, so Juan Pablo II College are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Juan Pablo II College and 0.9 for Atletico Grau (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Juan Pablo II College are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.50 for Atletico Grau. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +16.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Juan Pablo II College vs Atletico Grau Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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