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UTC Cajamarca vs ADT Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 18:00

UTC Cajamarca

PPG 1.22 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

ADT

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-17.9%0-23.7%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.0%1-112.1%1-25.6%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.0%2-19.3%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.2%3-14.8%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.6%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 45.9% 2.18 +7.5%

Draw 27.0% 30.3% 3.30 -6.5%

Away win 23.7% 30.8% 3.25 -13.8%

Over 2.5 50.3% 50.0% 2.00 +0.6%

Over 3.5 28.8% 28.2% 3.55 +1.3%

BTTS 53.1% 57.1% 1.75 -7.1%

Home O1.5 45.4% 45.5% 2.20 -0.1%

Away O1.5 27.0% 34.7% 2.88 -13.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 83 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 51%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 49% / xG 1.5-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.1%

#2 1–0 13.0%

#3 0–0 8.4%

#4 2–0 10.0%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UTC Cajamarca1.5

ADT0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

UTC CAJAMARCA · PPG 1.22

ADT · PPG 0.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.61 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

UTC Cajamarca (H) 49.3%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV +7.5%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -6.5%

ADT (A) 23.7%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -13.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

UTC Cajamarca face ADT in Peru - Primera División on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UTC Cajamarca a 49% chance, the draw 27% and ADT 24%, so UTC Cajamarca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for UTC Cajamarca and 0.9 for ADT (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UTC Cajamarca are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 0.67 for ADT. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +3.5%. This match finished 1-1.

UTC Cajamarca vs ADT Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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