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Universitario vs Sporting Cristal Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 01:30

Universitario

PPG 2.40 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Sporting Cristal

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.5% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+14.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-13.4%0-21.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.8%1-18.0%1-23.3%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.6%2-19.5%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.2%3-17.5%3-23.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-09.6%4+-17.8%4+-23.2%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.5% 55.6% 1.80 +14.3%

Draw 20.5% 28.2% 3.55 -16.3%

Away win 16.1% 23.3% 4.30 -18.5%

Over 2.5 63.4% 51.8% 1.93 +22.4%

Over 3.5 39.5% 29.4% 3.40 +34.3%

BTTS 54.6% 56.5% 1.77 -3.4%

Home O1.5 62.4% 52.6% 1.90 +18.6%

Away O1.5 20.4% 29.0% 3.45 -17.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 83 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 51%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob54.6%

H 64% / xG 2.4-0.8 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 3–0 9.2%

#4 1–1✓ 8.0%

#5 1–0 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Universitario2.4

Sporting Cristal0.8

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

UNIVERSITARIO · PPG 2.40

SPORTING CRISTAL · PPG 0.50

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.56 for Home, form 2.40 vs 0.50 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Universitario (H) 63.5%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +14.3%

Draw 20.5%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -16.3%

Sporting Cristal (A) 16.1%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV -18.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Universitario face Sporting Cristal in Peru - Primera División on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Universitario a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Sporting Cristal 16%, so Universitario are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Universitario and 0.8 for Sporting Cristal (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Universitario are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 0.50 for Sporting Cristal. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +34.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Universitario vs Sporting Cristal Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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