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Sport Huancayo vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 18:00

Sport Huancayo

PPG 1.89 · HOME

UPCOMING

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-16.1%0-23.4%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.0%1-111.0%1-26.0%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.9%2-19.8%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.3%3-15.8%3-23.2%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-13.9%4+-22.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 63.3% 1.58 -15.3%

Draw 23.2% 25.6% 3.90 -5.7%

Away win 23.2% 18.2% 5.50 +16.6%

Over 2.5 60.4% 58.8% 1.70 +2.7%

Over 3.5 36.8% 36.4% 2.75 +1.2%

BTTS 54.6% 58.8% 1.70 -7.2%

Home O1.5 49.2% 61.7% 1.62 -20.3%

Away O1.5 35.4% 28.6% 3.50 +23.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 3.1%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 54% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.9%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 0–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sport Huancayo1.8

Club Deportivo Los Chankas1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORT HUANCAYO · PPG 1.89

CLUB DEPORTIVO LOS CHANKAS · PPG 1.33

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.69 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sport Huancayo (H) 53.6%

ODDS 1.58 · IMPLIED 63.3% EV -15.3%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -5.7%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas (A) 23.2%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +16.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sport Huancayo face Club Deportivo Los Chankas in Peru - Primera División on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sport Huancayo a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Club Deportivo Los Chankas 23%, so Sport Huancayo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Sport Huancayo and 1.1 for Club Deportivo Los Chankas (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sport Huancayo are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.33 for Club Deportivo Los Chankas. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +24.5%.

Sport Huancayo vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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