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Al Jubail vs Al Wahda Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Regular Season - 30 ·Monday, April 20, 2026, 15:45

Al Jubail

PPG 0.93 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Al Wahda

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.4% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-17.5%0-27.7%0-35.3%0-4+4.4%1 1-04.6%1-19.4%1-29.7%1-36.6%1-4+5.5%2 2-02.9%2-15.9%2-26.1%2-34.2%2-4+3.5%3 3-01.2%3-12.5%3-22.6%3-31.8%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.0% 23.8% 4.20 -3.4%

Draw 21.2% 26.3% 3.80 -19.4%

Away win 55.8% 59.5% 1.68 -6.3%

Over 2.5 64.4% 60.6% 1.65 +6.3%

Over 3.5 42.4% 38.2% 2.62 +11.1%

BTTS 62.5% 62.5% 1.60 0.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob62.5%

A 56% / xG 1.3-2.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.7%

#2 1–1 9.4%

#3 0–2✓ 7.7%

#4 0–1 7.5%

#5 1–3 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Jubail1.3

Al Wahda2.1

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.4% · O3.5 PROB 42.4%

Form & verdict PPG

AL JUBAIL · PPG 0.93

AL WAHDA · PPG 0.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.93), Away POOR (0.71)

Win probability 1X2

Al Jubail (H) 23.0%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -3.4%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -19.4%

Al Wahda (A) 55.8%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -6.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Jubail face Al Wahda in Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 on Monday, April 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Jubail a 23% chance, the draw 21% and Al Wahda 56%, so Al Wahda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Al Jubail and 2.1 for Al Wahda (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Jubail are averaging 0.93 points per game versus 0.71 for Al Wahda. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +11.1%. This match finished 0-2.

Al Jubail vs Al Wahda Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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