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Al Adalha vs Al Jandal Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Regular Season - 30 ·Monday, April 20, 2026, 15:45

Al Adalha

PPG 0.64 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Al Jandal

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 64.4% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-16.2%0-25.0%0-32.7%0-4+1.5%1 1-06.4%1-110.2%1-28.2%1-34.4%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.2%2-18.4%2-26.8%2-33.6%2-4+2.1%3 3-02.9%3-14.6%3-23.7%3-32.0%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.7%4+-22.2%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.2% 43.5% 2.30 -9.8%

Draw 23.2% 31.3% 3.20 -25.8%

Away win 37.6% 35.1% 2.85 +7.2%

Over 2.5 63.0% 54.6% 1.83 +15.3%

Over 3.5 40.8% 32.3% 3.10 +26.5%

BTTS 64.4% 61.7% 1.62 +4.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob64.4%

H 39% / xG 1.6-1.6 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1✓ 8.4%

#3 1–2 8.2%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 1–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Adalha1.6

Al Jandal1.6

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.0% · O3.5 PROB 40.8%

Form & verdict PPG

AL ADALHA · PPG 0.64

AL JANDAL · PPG 0.86

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.64), Away POOR (0.86)

Win probability 1X2

Al Adalha (H) 39.2%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -9.8%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -25.8%

Al Jandal (A) 37.6%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV +7.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Adalha face Al Jandal in Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 on Monday, April 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Adalha a 39% chance, the draw 23% and Al Jandal 38%, so Al Adalha are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Al Adalha and 1.6 for Al Jandal (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Adalha are averaging 0.64 points per game versus 0.86 for Al Jandal. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +26.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Al Adalha vs Al Jandal Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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