Today / Croatia - HNL / Dinamo Zagreb vs NK Slaven Belupo

Dinamo Zagreb vs NK Slaven Belupo Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Regular Season - 1 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 18:00

Dinamo Zagreb

PPG 2.15 · HOME

UPCOMING

NK Slaven Belupo

PPG 0.96 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-12.2%0-21.0%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.1%1-16.2%1-22.7%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.9%2-18.7%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.2%3-18.1%3-23.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-012.7%4+-111.2%4+-24.9%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.7% 82.0% 1.22 -18.6%

Draw 17.3% 17.9% 5.60 -1.9%

Away win 16.0% 8.7% 11.50 +50.4%

Over 2.5 67.0% 70.4% 1.42 -4.9%

Over 3.5 44.8% 48.8% 2.05 -8.2%

BTTS 55.4% 55.6% 1.80 -0.3%

Home O1.5 66.2% 80.0% 1.25 -17.3%

Away O1.5 24.4% 21.1% 4.75 +9.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 62%

ROI -32.4%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.4%

H 67% / xG 2.8-0.9 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 9.9%

#2 3–0 9.2%

#3 2–1 8.7%

#4 3–1 8.1%

#5 1–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dinamo Zagreb2.8

NK Slaven Belupo0.9

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DINAMO ZAGREB · PPG 2.15

NK SLAVEN BELUPO · PPG 0.96

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.92 for Home, form 2.15 vs 0.96 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Dinamo Zagreb (H) 66.7%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -18.6%

Draw 17.3%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV -1.9%

NK Slaven Belupo (A) 16.0%

ODDS 11.50 · IMPLIED 8.7% EV +50.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dinamo Zagreb face NK Slaven Belupo in Croatia - HNL on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dinamo Zagreb a 67% chance, the draw 17% and NK Slaven Belupo 16%, so Dinamo Zagreb are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Dinamo Zagreb and 0.9 for NK Slaven Belupo (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dinamo Zagreb are averaging 2.15 points per game versus 0.96 for NK Slaven Belupo. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +48.1%.

Dinamo Zagreb vs NK Slaven Belupo Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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