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Shakhtar vs Polessya Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Regular Season - 24 ·Monday, April 20, 2026, 15:00

Shakhtar

PPG 2.58 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Polessya

PPG 2.45 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.3% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.9%0-19.0%0-23.7%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.2%1-112.5%1-25.1%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.6%2-18.7%2-23.6%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.9%3-14.0%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-11.9%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.3% 52.6% 1.90 -4.4%

Draw 27.5% 32.3% 3.10 -14.8%

Away win 22.2% 25.0% 4.00 -11.2%

Over 2.5 38.1% 45.5% 2.20 -16.2%

Over 3.5 18.4% 25.0% 4.00 -26.4%

BTTS 42.2% 51.8% 1.93 -18.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 11.4%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob42.2%

H 50% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 15.2%

#2 1–1 12.5%

#3 0–0 10.9%

#4 2–0 10.6%

#5 0–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shakhtar1.4

Polessya0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.1% · O3.5 PROB 18.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SHAKHTAR · PPG 2.58

POLESSYA · PPG 2.45

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.58), Away EXCELLENT (2.45)

Win probability 1X2

Shakhtar (H) 50.3%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -4.4%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.8%

Polessya (A) 22.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -11.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shakhtar face Polessya in Ukraine - Premier League on Monday, April 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shakhtar a 50% chance, the draw 28% and Polessya 22%, so Shakhtar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Shakhtar and 0.8 for Polessya (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shakhtar are averaging 2.58 points per game versus 2.45 for Polessya. This match finished 1-0.

Shakhtar vs Polessya Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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