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Zorya Luhansk vs Polessya Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Regular Season - 29 ·Monday, May 18, 2026, 10:00

Zorya Luhansk

PPG 1.64 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Polessya

PPG 2.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-112.8%0-210.0%0-35.2%0-4+2.9%1 1-07.6%1-112.0%1-29.4%1-34.9%1-4+2.7%2 2-03.6%2-15.6%2-24.4%2-32.3%2-4+1.3%3 3-01.1%3-11.8%3-21.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.0% 18.5% 5.40 +21.0%

Draw 27.6% 26.0% 3.85 +3.8%

Away win 47.4% 65.4% 1.53 -27.5%

Over 2.5 47.6% 52.6% 1.90 -9.6%

Over 3.5 24.4% 30.3% 3.30 -11.7%

BTTS 51.6% 52.4% 1.91 -1.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 11.4%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob51.6%

A 47% / xG 0.9-1.6 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 0–1 12.8%

#3 0–2 10.0%

#4 0–0✓ 8.1%

#5 1–2 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zorya Luhansk0.9

Polessya1.6

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 24.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ZORYA LUHANSK · PPG 1.64

POLESSYA · PPG 2.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.14) vs Home GOOD (1.64)

Win probability 1X2

Zorya Luhansk (H) 25.0%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +21.0%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +3.8%

Polessya (A) 47.4%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -27.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zorya Luhansk face Polessya in Ukraine - Premier League on Monday, May 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zorya Luhansk a 25% chance, the draw 28% and Polessya 47%, so Polessya are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Zorya Luhansk and 1.6 for Polessya (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zorya Luhansk are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 2.14 for Polessya. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +21.0%. This match finished 0-0.

Zorya Luhansk vs Polessya Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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