Today / Ukraine - Premier League / Obolon vs LNZ Cherkasy

Obolon vs LNZ Cherkasy Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Regular Season - 30 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 10:00

Obolon

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

LNZ Cherkasy

PPG 2.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 58.1% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.5%0-117.9%0-214.0%0-37.3%0-4+4.0%1 1-06.9%1-110.8%1-28.4%1-34.4%1-4+2.4%2 2-02.1%2-13.3%2-22.5%2-31.3%2-4+0.7%3 3-00.4%3-10.7%3-20.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.8% 23.8% 4.20 -22.7%

Draw 27.0% 32.3% 3.10 -9.8%

Away win 58.1% 54.6% 1.83 +6.3%

Over 2.5 46.2% 40.8% 2.45 +13.2%

Over 3.5 17.4% 21.1% 4.75 -10.4%

BTTS 48.6% 47.6% 2.10 +2.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 11.4%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob48.6%

A 58% / xG 0.6-1.6 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1✓ 17.9%

#2 0–2 14.0%

#3 0–0 11.5%

#4 1–1 10.8%

#5 1–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Obolon0.6

LNZ Cherkasy1.6

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.4%

Form & verdict PPG

OBOLON · PPG 1.00

LNZ CHERKASY · PPG 2.07

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.07) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Obolon (H) 14.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -22.7%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -9.8%

LNZ Cherkasy (A) 58.1%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV +6.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Obolon face LNZ Cherkasy in Ukraine - Premier League on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Obolon a 15% chance, the draw 27% and LNZ Cherkasy 58%, so LNZ Cherkasy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Obolon and 1.6 for LNZ Cherkasy (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Obolon are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 2.07 for LNZ Cherkasy. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +13.2%. This match finished 0-1.

Obolon vs LNZ Cherkasy Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ukraine - Premier League Predictions