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Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Matchday 30 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 10:00

Oleksandria

PPG 0.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDDL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Kryvbas KR

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWLD

// Model verdict

Away 51% chance

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 46.5% — a clear edge.

+32.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-110.0%0-210.2%0-36.9%0-4+5.7%1 1-04.8%1-19.8%1-210.0%1-36.8%1-4+5.5%2 2-02.3%2-14.8%2-24.9%2-33.3%2-4+2.7%3 3-00.8%3-11.5%3-21.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.5%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.2% 34.5% 2.90 -35.3%

Draw 24.3% 29.4% 3.40 -10.4%

Away win 61.5% 46.5% 2.15 +32.2%

Over 2.5 59.1% 56.5% 1.77 +4.6%

Over 3.5 35.7% 33.9% 2.95 +5.3%

BTTS 54.0% 62.5% 1.60 -13.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 13.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob54.0%

A 62% / xG 1.0-2.0 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 9.8%

#2 0–2 10.2%

#3 1–2 10.0%

#4 0–1 10.0%

#5 0–3 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oleksandria1.0

Kryvbas KR2.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 35.7%

Form & verdict PPG

OLEKSANDRIA · PPG 0.50

KRYVBAS KR · PPG 1.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

51%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.43) vs Home POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Oleksandria (H) 14.2%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -35.3%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.4%

Kryvbas KR (A) 61.5%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +32.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oleksandria face Kryvbas KR in Ukraine - Premier League on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oleksandria a 14% chance, the draw 24% and Kryvbas KR 62%, so Kryvbas KR are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Oleksandria and 2.0 for Kryvbas KR (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oleksandria are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 1.43 for Kryvbas KR. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +32.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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