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Episentr vs SK Poltava Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Matchday 30 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 12:30

Episentr

PPG 1.07 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWDD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

SK Poltava

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 65% chance

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-14.1%0-21.9%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.7%1-19.0%1-24.2%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.7%2-19.8%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.8%3-17.2%3-23.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-07.1%4+-16.5%4+-23.0%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.1% 80.0% 1.25 -31.1%

Draw 23.0% 20.8% 4.80 +6.2%

Away win 21.9% 9.3% 10.75 +81.3%

Over 2.5 61.4% 66.7% 1.50 -7.9%

Over 3.5 37.7% 45.5% 2.20 -17.1%

BTTS 52.6% 54.1% 1.85 -2.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 13.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 55% / xG 2.2-0.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.7%

#2 1–1 9.0%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 3–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Episentr2.2

SK Poltava0.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 37.7%

Form & verdict PPG

EPISENTR · PPG 1.07

SK POLTAVA · PPG 0.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

65%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.07) > Away POOR (0.43)

Win probability 1X2

Episentr (H) 55.1%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -31.1%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +6.2%

SK Poltava (A) 21.9%

ODDS 10.75 · IMPLIED 9.3% EV +81.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Episentr face SK Poltava in Ukraine - Premier League on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Episentr a 55% chance, the draw 23% and SK Poltava 22%, so Episentr are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Episentr and 0.9 for SK Poltava (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Episentr are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 0.43 for SK Poltava. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +81.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Episentr vs SK Poltava Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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