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Polessya vs Rukh Lviv Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Regular Season - 30 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 10:00

Polessya

PPG 1.79 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Rukh Lviv

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.8% vs bookmaker-implied 89.3%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-14.6%0-21.1%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-018.1%1-18.5%1-22.0%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.8%2-17.9%2-21.9%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-010.5%3-14.9%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-07.4%4+-13.5%4+-20.8%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.8% 89.3% 1.12 -27.4%

Draw 24.7% 16.0% 6.25 +32.6%

Away win 10.5% 5.3% 19.00 +59.7%

Over 2.5 46.9% 67.6% 1.48 -30.6%

Over 3.5 20.7% 45.5% 2.20 -32.7%

BTTS 46.2% 40.8% 2.45 +13.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 11.4%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob46.2%

H 65% / xG 1.9-0.5 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 16.8%

#2 1–0 18.1%

#3 0–0 9.7%

#4 3–0 10.5%

#5 1–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Polessya1.9

Rukh Lviv0.5

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.9% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

POLESSYA · PPG 1.79

RUKH LVIV · PPG 0.71

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.79) vs P(Home)=64.8%

Win probability 1X2

Polessya (H) 64.8%

ODDS 1.12 · IMPLIED 89.3% EV -27.4%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV +32.6%

Rukh Lviv (A) 10.5%

ODDS 19.00 · IMPLIED 5.3% EV +59.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Polessya face Rukh Lviv in Ukraine - Premier League on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Polessya a 65% chance, the draw 25% and Rukh Lviv 11%, so Polessya are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Polessya and 0.5 for Rukh Lviv (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Polessya are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 0.71 for Rukh Lviv. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +59.7%. This match finished 2-0.

Polessya vs Rukh Lviv Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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