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Karpaty Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Matchday 30 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 15:00

Karpaty Lviv

PPG 1.29 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Zorya Luhansk

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-19.9%0-25.2%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.5%1-113.0%1-26.8%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.1%2-18.5%2-24.4%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.5%3-13.7%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.6%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% 45.5% 2.20 +0.1%

Draw 28.1% 30.3% 3.30 -4.4%

Away win 26.5% 33.9% 2.95 -13.1%

Over 2.5 46.9% 54.1% 1.85 -13.2%

Over 3.5 21.1% 32.3% 3.10 -20.8%

BTTS 51.6% 60.6% 1.65 -14.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 13.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.6%

H 46% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 9.5%

#3 1–0 12.5%

#4 2–1 8.5%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Karpaty Lviv1.3

Zorya Luhansk1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.9% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

KARPATY LVIV · PPG 1.29

ZORYA LUHANSK · PPG 1.36

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

58%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.29), Away AVERAGE (1.36)

Win probability 1X2

Karpaty Lviv (H) 45.5%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +0.1%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -4.4%

Zorya Luhansk (A) 26.5%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -13.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Karpaty Lviv face Zorya Luhansk in Ukraine - Premier League on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Karpaty Lviv a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Zorya Luhansk 27%, so Karpaty Lviv are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Karpaty Lviv and 1.0 for Zorya Luhansk (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Karpaty Lviv are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.36 for Zorya Luhansk. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +0.1%. This match finished 1-2.

Karpaty Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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