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Kryvbas KR vs Shakhtar Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Matchday 29 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 10:00

Kryvbas KR

PPG 1.93 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLD

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Shakhtar

PPG 2.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 65% chance

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-18.9%0-29.3%0-36.5%0-4+5.5%1 1-04.5%1-19.5%1-29.9%1-36.9%1-4+5.9%2 2-02.4%2-15.1%2-25.3%2-33.7%2-4+3.1%3 3-00.9%3-11.8%3-21.9%3-31.3%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 20.7% 17.9% 5.60 +9.6%

Draw 23.2% 23.8% 4.20 -1.5%

Away win 56.0% 67.6% 1.48 -17.1%

Over 2.5 61.4% 66.7% 1.50 -7.9%

Over 3.5 38.8% 43.5% 2.30 -10.8%

BTTS 59.2% 63.7% 1.57 -7.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 13.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob59.2%

A 56% / xG 1.1-2.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 1–2 9.9%

#3 0–2 9.3%

#4 0–1 8.9%

#5 1–3 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kryvbas KR1.1

Shakhtar2.1

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 38.8%

Form & verdict PPG

KRYVBAS KR · PPG 1.93

SHAKHTAR · PPG 2.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.93) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.29)

Win probability 1X2

Kryvbas KR (H) 20.7%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +9.6%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -1.5%

Shakhtar (A) 56.0%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -17.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kryvbas KR face Shakhtar in Ukraine - Premier League on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kryvbas KR a 21% chance, the draw 23% and Shakhtar 56%, so Shakhtar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Kryvbas KR and 2.1 for Shakhtar (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kryvbas KR are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 2.29 for Shakhtar. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +9.6%. This match finished 2-3.

Kryvbas KR vs Shakhtar Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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