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Ludogorets vs Botev Vratsa Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Regular Season - 3 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 16:00

Ludogorets

PPG 2.09 · HOME

UPCOMING

Botev Vratsa

PPG 0.99 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.06 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.5%0-16.4%0-21.6%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-019.7%1-110.0%1-22.5%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.4%2-17.8%2-22.0%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-08.1%3-14.1%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-12.3%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.1% — — —

Draw 27.0% — — —

Away win 18.9% — — —

Over 2.5 37.3% — — —

Over 3.5 21.4% — — —

BTTS 45.3% — — —

Home O1.5 47.4% — — —

Away O1.5 17.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 38%

BTTS 25%

Score Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob45.3%

H 54% / xG 1.6-0.5 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.7%

#2 2–0 15.4%

#3 0–0 12.5%

#4 1–1 10.0%

#5 3–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ludogorets1.6

Botev Vratsa0.5

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.3% · O3.5 PROB 21.4%

Form & verdict PPG

LUDOGORETS · PPG 2.09

BOTEV VRATSA · PPG 0.99

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.06 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ludogorets (H) 54.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Botev Vratsa (A) 18.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ludogorets face Botev Vratsa in Bulgaria - First League on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ludogorets a 54% chance, the draw 27% and Botev Vratsa 19%, so Ludogorets are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Ludogorets and 0.5 for Botev Vratsa (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ludogorets are averaging 2.09 points per game versus 0.99 for Botev Vratsa.

Ludogorets vs Botev Vratsa Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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