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Shirak vs Ararat-Armenia Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Regular Season - 22 ·Monday, April 20, 2026, 15:00

Shirak

PPG 0.80 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Ararat-Armenia

PPG 1.91 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 68.6% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-113.0%0-213.3%0-39.1%0-4+7.4%1 1-04.5%1-19.2%1-29.4%1-36.4%1-4+5.3%2 2-01.6%2-13.3%2-23.3%2-32.3%2-4+1.9%3 3-00.4%3-10.8%3-20.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 11.9% 13.3% 7.50 -10.8%

Draw 19.5% 22.7% 4.40 -14.2%

Away win 68.6% 74.1% 1.35 -7.4%

Over 2.5 51.9% 58.8% 1.70 -11.8%

Over 3.5 29.8% 36.4% 2.75 -18.1%

BTTS 44.2% 51.8% 1.93 -14.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -20.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob44.2%

A 69% / xG 0.7-2.0 / O2.5 52% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 13.3%

#2 0–1 13.0%

#3 1–2 9.4%

#4 1–1 9.2%

#5 0–3 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shirak0.7

Ararat-Armenia2.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.9% · O3.5 PROB 29.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SHIRAK · PPG 0.80

ARARAT-ARMENIA · PPG 1.91

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.91) vs Home POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Shirak (H) 11.9%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV -10.8%

Draw 19.5%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -14.2%

Ararat-Armenia (A) 68.6%

ODDS 1.35 · IMPLIED 74.1% EV -7.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shirak face Ararat-Armenia in Armenia - Premier League on Monday, April 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shirak a 12% chance, the draw 20% and Ararat-Armenia 69%, so Ararat-Armenia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Shirak and 2.0 for Ararat-Armenia (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shirak are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 1.91 for Ararat-Armenia. This match finished 0-4.

Shirak vs Ararat-Armenia Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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