Shirak vs Ararat-Armenia Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Armenia - Premier League Regular Season - 22 Gyumri City Stadium· Gyumri Monday, April 20, 2026 15:00

Shirak PPG 0.80

0-4 MISS

Ararat-Armenia PPG 1.91

Away· -7.4% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Shirak face Ararat-Armenia in Armenia - Premier League on Monday, April 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shirak a 12% chance, the draw 20% and Ararat-Armenia 69%, so Ararat-Armenia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Shirak and 2.0 for Ararat-Armenia (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shirak are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 1.91 for Ararat-Armenia. This match finished 0-4.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 11.9%

Odds: 7.50 EV: -10.8%

Draw 19.5%

Odds: 4.40 EV: -14.2%

Away 68.6%

Odds: 1.35 EV: -7.4%

Model lean: Away Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 51.9% Odds: 1.70 -11.8%

Over 3.5 29.8% Odds: 2.75 -18.1%

BTTS 44.2% Odds: 1.93 -14.7%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-2 ✘

2nd 0-1 ✘

3rd 1-2 ✘

4th 1-1 ✘

5th 0-3 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Shirak

0.71

Ararat-Armenia

2.04

Model SuggestionAway -7.4% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Away, but EV is -7.4% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 

League Track Record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5/Under 47%

BTTS/No 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -42.6%

Bet Hit 43% (7 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.91) vs Home POOR (0.80)