Today / Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1 / Atalanta U20 vs Parma U20

Atalanta U20 vs Parma U20 Prediction— Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1

Regular Season - 34 ·Monday, April 20, 2026, 14:00

Atalanta U20

PPG 1.69 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Parma U20

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.2% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-19.9%0-26.1%0-32.5%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.4%1-112.8%1-27.8%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.7%2-18.2%2-25.1%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.9%3-13.5%3-22.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.0% 43.5% 2.30 -12.6%

Draw 26.9% 32.3% 3.10 -16.6%

Away win 35.1% 38.2% 2.62 -8.0%

Over 2.5 46.1% — — —

Over 3.5 24.6% — — —

BTTS 51.2% 64.5% 1.55 -20.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -28.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 17%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob51.2%

H 38% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 1–0✓ 10.4%

#3 0–1 9.9%

#4 2–1 8.2%

#5 0–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atalanta U201.3

Parma U201.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.1% · O3.5 PROB 24.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ATALANTA U20 · PPG 1.69

PARMA U20 · PPG 1.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.69), Away GOOD (1.88)

Win probability 1X2

Atalanta U20 (H) 38.0%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -12.6%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -16.6%

Parma U20 (A) 35.1%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -8.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atalanta U20 face Parma U20 in Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1 on Monday, April 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atalanta U20 a 38% chance, the draw 27% and Parma U20 35%, so Atalanta U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Atalanta U20 and 1.2 for Parma U20 (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atalanta U20 are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.88 for Parma U20. This match finished 1-0.

Atalanta U20 vs Parma U20 Prediction— Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1 Predictions