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Argentino de Merlo vs Ituzaingó Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Matchday 30 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 18:00

Argentino de Merlo

PPG 1.36 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ituzaingó

PPG 0.21 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-16.2%0-22.0%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.9%1-110.6%1-23.5%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.6%2-19.0%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.8%3-15.1%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-13.2%4+-21.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 61.7% 1.62 -13.2%

Draw 24.0% 28.6% 3.50 -9.6%

Away win 22.3% 19.6% 5.10 +8.2%

Over 2.5 49.9% 48.8% 2.05 +2.3%

Over 3.5 28.7% 27.0% 3.70 +3.7%

BTTS 49.2% 51.3% 1.95 -4.1%

Home O1.5 49.2% 54.6% 1.83 -10.0%

Away O1.5 17.2% 23.8% 4.20 -16.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 129 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 65%

ROI 26.0%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.2%

H 54% / xG 1.7-0.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.9%

#2 2–0 13.6%

#3 1–1 10.6%

#4 0–0 9.3%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Argentino de Merlo1.7

Ituzaingó0.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ARGENTINO DE MERLO · PPG 1.36

ITUZAINGÓ · PPG 0.21

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.05 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Argentino de Merlo (H) 53.6%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -13.2%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.6%

Ituzaingó (A) 22.3%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +8.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Argentino de Merlo face Ituzaingó in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Argentino de Merlo a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Ituzaingó 22%, so Argentino de Merlo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Argentino de Merlo and 0.7 for Ituzaingó (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Argentino de Merlo are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 0.21 for Ituzaingó. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +3.7%.

Argentino de Merlo vs Ituzaingó Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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