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Sportivo Italiano vs Dock Sud Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Matchday 30 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 18:00

Sportivo Italiano

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Dock Sud

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.5%0-111.9%0-24.6%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.9%1-113.1%1-25.1%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.3%2-17.2%2-22.8%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.4%3-12.6%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-10.9%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.9% 47.6% 2.10 -9.9%

Draw 31.8% 31.3% 3.20 +1.8%

Away win 25.3% 30.8% 3.25 -10.7%

Over 2.5 37.0% 46.5% 2.15 -20.4%

Over 3.5 18.2% 25.3% 3.95 -16.9%

BTTS 47.7% 54.1% 1.85 -11.8%

Home O1.5 30.2% 44.4% 2.25 -32.0%

Away O1.5 17.9% 32.3% 3.10 -26.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 129 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 65%

ROI 26.0%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.7%

H 43% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.5%

#2 1–1 13.1%

#3 1–0 16.9%

#4 0–1 11.9%

#5 2–0 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sportivo Italiano1.1

Dock Sud0.8

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.0% · O3.5 PROB 18.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTIVO ITALIANO · PPG 1.50

DOCK SUD · PPG 0.86

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.32, combined xG 1.87 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sportivo Italiano (H) 42.9%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -9.9%

Draw 31.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +1.8%

Dock Sud (A) 25.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -10.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sportivo Italiano face Dock Sud in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sportivo Italiano a 43% chance, the draw 32% and Dock Sud 25%, so Sportivo Italiano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Sportivo Italiano and 0.8 for Dock Sud (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sportivo Italiano are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.86 for Dock Sud.

Sportivo Italiano vs Dock Sud Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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