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Deportivo Camioneros vs Deportivo Merlo Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Matchday 30 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 16:00

Deportivo Camioneros

PPG 1.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportivo Merlo

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.9% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-15.9%0-22.1%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.4%1-110.5%1-23.8%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.9%2-19.4%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.7%3-15.6%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-13.8%4+-21.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.9% 52.4% 1.91 +4.9%

Draw 23.2% 31.3% 3.20 -15.5%

Away win 21.9% 26.3% 3.80 -10.1%

Over 2.5 49.9% 45.5% 2.20 +9.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 23.8% 4.20 +12.3%

BTTS 49.1% 51.8% 1.93 -5.2%

Home O1.5 49.2% 46.5% 2.15 +5.8%

Away O1.5 17.2% 28.2% 3.55 -23.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 129 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 65%

ROI 26.0%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.1%

H 55% / xG 1.8-0.7 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.9%

#2 1–0 14.4%

#3 1–1 10.5%

#4 0–0 8.0%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Camioneros1.8

Deportivo Merlo0.7

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO CAMIONEROS · PPG 1.86

DEPORTIVO MERLO · PPG 1.07

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.06 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Camioneros (H) 54.9%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +4.9%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -15.5%

Deportivo Merlo (A) 21.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -10.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Camioneros face Deportivo Merlo in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Camioneros a 55% chance, the draw 23% and Deportivo Merlo 22%, so Deportivo Camioneros are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Deportivo Camioneros and 0.7 for Deportivo Merlo (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Camioneros are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.07 for Deportivo Merlo. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +30.3%.

Deportivo Camioneros vs Deportivo Merlo Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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