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Villa Dalmine vs Brown DE Adrogue Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Matchday 30 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 18:00

Villa Dalmine

PPG 1.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

Brown DE Adrogue

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-022.4%0-19.7%0-22.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-023.8%1-110.3%1-22.2%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-012.7%2-15.5%2-21.2%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-04.5%3-11.9%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-10.6%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.3% 55.6% 1.80 -14.9%

Draw 31.5% 31.3% 3.20 +0.8%

Away win 21.2% 23.1% 4.33 -4.9%

Over 2.5 34.2% 38.5% 2.60 -11.1%

Over 3.5 14.5% 20.6% 4.85 -17.8%

BTTS 44.6% 44.4% 2.25 +0.4%

Home O1.5 30.2% 44.4% 2.25 -32.0%

Away O1.5 11.3% 22.2% 4.50 -29.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 129 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 65%

ROI 26.0%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob44.6%

H 47% / xG 1.1-0.4 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 22.4%

#2 1–0 23.8%

#3 2–0 12.7%

#4 1–1 10.3%

#5 0–1 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Villa Dalmine1.1

Brown DE Adrogue0.4

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 14.5%

Form & verdict PPG

VILLA DALMINE · PPG 1.71

BROWN DE ADROGUE · PPG 1.07

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.63 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Villa Dalmine (H) 47.3%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -14.9%

Draw 31.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +0.8%

Brown DE Adrogue (A) 21.2%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -4.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Villa Dalmine face Brown DE Adrogue in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Villa Dalmine a 47% chance, the draw 32% and Brown DE Adrogue 21%, so Villa Dalmine are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Villa Dalmine and 0.4 for Brown DE Adrogue (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Villa Dalmine are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.07 for Brown DE Adrogue. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +0.4%.

Villa Dalmine vs Brown DE Adrogue Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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