Today / Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana / Excursionistas vs Deportivo Laferrere

Excursionistas vs Deportivo Laferrere Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Matchday 30 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 18:00

Excursionistas

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportivo Laferrere

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.2% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-17.0%0-22.7%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.6%1-111.4%1-24.5%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.9%2-19.3%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.5%3-15.0%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-13.0%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.2% 52.4% 1.91 -2.2%

Draw 24.7% 32.3% 3.10 -14.1%

Away win 24.1% 26.3% 3.80 -5.1%

Over 2.5 49.9% 42.6% 2.35 +17.3%

Over 3.5 28.7% 23.1% 4.33 +14.6%

BTTS 49.2% 50.0% 2.00 -1.6%

Home O1.5 47.2% 45.5% 2.20 +3.8%

Away O1.5 18.9% 26.7% 3.75 -17.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 129 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 65%

ROI 26.0%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.2%

H 51% / xG 1.6-0.8 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–0 14.6%

#3 2–0 11.9%

#4 0–0 9.0%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Excursionistas1.6

Deportivo Laferrere0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

EXCURSIONISTAS · PPG 2.00

DEPORTIVO LAFERRERE · PPG 1.57

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.85 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Excursionistas (H) 51.2%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -2.2%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.1%

Deportivo Laferrere (A) 24.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -5.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Excursionistas face Deportivo Laferrere in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Excursionistas a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Deportivo Laferrere 24%, so Excursionistas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Excursionistas and 0.8 for Deportivo Laferrere (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Excursionistas are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.57 for Deportivo Laferrere. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +17.3%.

Excursionistas vs Deportivo Laferrere Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana Predictions