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Real Pilar vs Flandria Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Matchday 30 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 18:00

Real Pilar

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Flandria

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.6% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.4%0-18.6%0-23.2%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.2%1-112.2%1-24.6%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.5%2-18.6%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.4%3-14.1%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.0%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.6% 51.3% 1.95 -1.3%

Draw 26.8% 32.3% 3.10 -10.2%

Away win 22.6% 26.7% 3.75 -9.2%

Over 2.5 45.9% 40.8% 2.45 +12.5%

Over 3.5 26.0% 22.2% 4.50 +10.2%

BTTS 47.7% 48.8% 2.05 -2.2%

Home O1.5 45.1% 43.5% 2.30 +3.7%

Away O1.5 17.2% 26.0% 3.85 -20.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 129 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 65%

ROI 26.0%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.7%

H 51% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.2%

#2 1–1 12.2%

#3 0–0 11.4%

#4 2–0 11.5%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Pilar1.4

Flandria0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL PILAR · PPG 1.50

FLANDRIA · PPG 0.64

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.67 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Real Pilar (H) 50.6%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -1.3%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -10.2%

Flandria (A) 22.6%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -9.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Pilar face Flandria in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Pilar a 51% chance, the draw 27% and Flandria 23%, so Real Pilar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Real Pilar and 0.8 for Flandria (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Pilar are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.64 for Flandria. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +12.5%.

Real Pilar vs Flandria Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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