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Deportivo Laferrere vs Arsenal Sarandi Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Matchday 29 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 18:00

Deportivo Laferrere

PPG 1.36 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Arsenal Sarandi

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.7%0-115.3%0-210.0%0-34.3%0-4+1.9%1 1-09.8%1-112.8%1-28.4%1-33.6%1-4+1.6%2 2-04.1%2-15.4%2-23.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.7%3 3-01.2%3-11.5%3-21.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.7% 33.9% 2.95 -9.2%

Draw 27.9% 34.5% 2.90 -11.5%

Away win 43.4% 41.7% 2.40 +4.2%

Over 2.5 44.0% 37.0% 2.70 +18.8%

Over 3.5 22.0% 22.2% 4.50 -0.6%

BTTS 48.4% 46.5% 2.15 +4.1%

Home O1.5 32.1% 29.4% 3.40 +9.1%

Away O1.5 39.4% 34.5% 2.90 +14.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 129 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 65%

ROI 26.0%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob48.4%

A 43% / xG 0.8-1.3 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.8%

#2 0–0 11.7%

#3 0–1 15.3%

#4 0–2 10.0%

#5 1–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Laferrere0.8

Arsenal Sarandi1.3

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO LAFERRERE · PPG 1.36

ARSENAL SARANDI · PPG 1.71

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.47, combined xG 2.14 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Laferrere (H) 28.7%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -9.2%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -11.5%

Arsenal Sarandi (A) 43.4%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +4.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Laferrere face Arsenal Sarandi in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Laferrere a 29% chance, the draw 28% and Arsenal Sarandi 43%, so Arsenal Sarandi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Deportivo Laferrere and 1.3 for Arsenal Sarandi (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Laferrere are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.71 for Arsenal Sarandi. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +36.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Deportivo Laferrere vs Arsenal Sarandi Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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