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Dock Sud vs San Martín Burzaco Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Matchday 29 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 18:00

Dock Sud

PPG 1.50 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

San Martín Burzaco

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.8%0-113.5%0-25.4%0-31.5%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.4%1-113.2%1-25.3%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.0%2-16.5%2-22.6%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.6%3-12.1%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.2% 48.8% 2.05 -15.5%

Draw 32.6% 32.3% 3.10 +1.1%

Away win 26.2% 28.6% 3.50 -5.0%

Over 2.5 36.3% 40.0% 2.50 -9.3%

Over 3.5 18.1% 22.2% 4.50 -11.1%

BTTS 45.9% 47.6% 2.10 -3.6%

Home O1.5 32.1% 40.8% 2.45 -21.3%

Away O1.5 20.4% 26.7% 3.75 -14.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 129 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 65%

ROI 26.0%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob45.9%

H 41% / xG 1.0-0.8 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.8%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 1–0 16.4%

#4 0–1 13.5%

#5 2–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dock Sud1.0

San Martín Burzaco0.8

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.3% · O3.5 PROB 18.1%

Form & verdict PPG

DOCK SUD · PPG 1.50

SAN MARTÍN BURZACO · PPG 1.64

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.17, combined xG 1.79 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Dock Sud (H) 41.2%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -15.5%

Draw 32.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +1.1%

San Martín Burzaco (A) 26.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -5.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dock Sud face San Martín Burzaco in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dock Sud a 41% chance, the draw 33% and San Martín Burzaco 26%, so Dock Sud are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Dock Sud and 0.8 for San Martín Burzaco (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dock Sud are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.64 for San Martín Burzaco. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +3.8%. This match finished 4-1.

Dock Sud vs San Martín Burzaco Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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