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Argentino Quilmes vs Real Pilar Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Matchday 29 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 18:00

Argentino Quilmes

PPG 1.29 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Real Pilar

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.6% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+11.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.4%0-112.3%0-26.7%0-32.4%0-4+0.8%1 1-012.4%1-113.4%1-27.3%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-06.8%2-17.3%2-24.0%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.5%3-12.7%3-21.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.9%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.8% 39.2% 2.55 -6.2%

Draw 28.1% 35.1% 2.85 -11.9%

Away win 35.1% 35.7% 2.80 -1.7%

Over 2.5 45.9% 35.1% 2.85 +30.8%

Over 3.5 26.0% 18.2% 5.50 +25.8%

BTTS 50.6% 45.5% 2.20 +11.3%

Home O1.5 32.1% 32.3% 3.10 -0.5%

Away O1.5 35.4% 29.0% 3.45 +22.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 129 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 65%

ROI 26.0%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob50.6%

D 28% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0✓ 11.4%

#3 1–0 12.4%

#4 0–1 12.3%

#5 2–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Argentino Quilmes1.1

Real Pilar1.1

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ARGENTINO QUILMES · PPG 1.29

REAL PILAR · PPG 1.57

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.01, combined xG 2.17 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Argentino Quilmes (H) 36.8%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -6.2%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -11.9%

Real Pilar (A) 35.1%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -1.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Argentino Quilmes face Real Pilar in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Argentino Quilmes a 37% chance, the draw 28% and Real Pilar 35%, so Argentino Quilmes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Argentino Quilmes and 1.1 for Real Pilar (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Argentino Quilmes are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.57 for Real Pilar. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +45.2%. This match finished 0-0.

Argentino Quilmes vs Real Pilar Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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