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Penybont vs The New Saints Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Regular Season - 1 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 13:30

Penybont

PPG 1.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

The New Saints

PPG 2.19 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap -0.73 - moderate Away edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-111.5%0-29.9%0-35.7%0-4+3.6%1 1-06.6%1-111.3%1-29.7%1-35.6%1-4+3.5%2 2-03.3%2-15.6%2-24.8%2-32.8%2-4+1.7%3 3-01.1%3-11.8%3-21.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.6% — — —

Draw 24.8% — — —

Away win 51.7% — — —

Over 2.5 53.4% — — —

Over 3.5 32.2% — — —

BTTS 55.4% — — —

Home O1.5 32.6% — — —

Away O1.5 48.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob55.4%

A 52% / xG 1.0-1.7 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 0–2 9.9%

#3 0–1 11.5%

#4 1–2 9.7%

#5 0–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Penybont1.0

The New Saints1.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

PENYBONT · PPG 1.44

THE NEW SAINTS · PPG 2.19

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.73 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Penybont (H) 23.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

The New Saints (A) 51.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Penybont face The New Saints in Wales - Premier League on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Penybont a 24% chance, the draw 25% and The New Saints 52%, so The New Saints are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Penybont and 1.7 for The New Saints (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Penybont are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 2.19 for The New Saints.

Penybont vs The New Saints Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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