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GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Caernarfon Town Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Regular Season - 1 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 13:30

GAP Connah S Quay FC

PPG 1.70 · HOME

UPCOMING

Caernarfon Town

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-15.9%0-24.2%0-32.0%0-4+0.9%1 1-07.3%1-110.4%1-27.3%1-33.5%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.5%2-19.2%2-26.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.8%3-15.4%3-23.8%3-31.8%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.6%4+-22.5%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.6% — — —

Draw 23.8% — — —

Away win 28.5% — — —

Over 2.5 63.6% — — —

Over 3.5 40.1% — — —

BTTS 62.1% — — —

Home O1.5 49.4% — — —

Away O1.5 43.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob62.1%

H 48% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 2–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

GAP Connah S Quay FC1.8

Caernarfon Town1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

GAP CONNAH S QUAY FC · PPG 1.70

CAERNARFON TOWN · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.35 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

GAP Connah S Quay FC (H) 47.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Caernarfon Town (A) 28.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

GAP Connah S Quay FC face Caernarfon Town in Wales - Premier League on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives GAP Connah S Quay FC a 48% chance, the draw 24% and Caernarfon Town 28%, so GAP Connah S Quay FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for GAP Connah S Quay FC and 1.4 for Caernarfon Town (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, GAP Connah S Quay FC are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.50 for Caernarfon Town.

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Caernarfon Town Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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