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Dewa Utd vs Persib Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Regular Season - 28 ·Monday, April 20, 2026, 12:00

Dewa Utd

PPG 1.69 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Persib

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 51.9% vs bookmaker-implied 46.5% — a clear edge.

+11.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.2%0-115.7%0-211.1%0-35.2%0-4+2.5%1 1-08.7%1-112.3%1-28.7%1-34.1%1-4+2.0%2 2-03.4%2-14.8%2-23.4%2-31.6%2-4+0.8%3 3-00.9%3-11.3%3-20.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 20.8% 33.9% 2.95 -38.6%

Draw 27.3% 29.4% 3.40 -7.2%

Away win 51.9% 46.5% 2.15 +11.6%

Over 2.5 37.5% 58.8% 1.70 -36.3%

Over 3.5 17.9% 37.0% 2.70 -51.7%

BTTS 41.0% 64.5% 1.55 -36.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -13.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob41.0%

A 52% / xG 0.8-1.4 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 41%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 15.7%

#2 1–1 12.3%

#3 0–0 11.2%

#4 0–2 11.1%

#5 1–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dewa Utd0.8

Persib1.4

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.5% · O3.5 PROB 17.9%

Form & verdict PPG

DEWA UTD · PPG 1.69

PERSIB · PPG 1.69

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.69), Away GOOD (1.69)

Win probability 1X2

Dewa Utd (H) 20.8%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -38.6%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -7.2%

Persib (A) 51.9%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +11.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dewa Utd face Persib in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Monday, April 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dewa Utd a 21% chance, the draw 27% and Persib 52%, so Persib are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Dewa Utd and 1.4 for Persib (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dewa Utd are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.69 for Persib. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +11.6%. This match finished 2-2.

Dewa Utd vs Persib Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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