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BKMA vs Shirak Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Regular Season - 1 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 14:00

BKMA

PPG 1.13 · HOME

UPCOMING

Shirak

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.84 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-16.4%0-22.9%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.3%1-111.1%1-25.0%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.7%2-19.7%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.3%3-15.7%3-22.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-13.7%4+-21.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.7% — — —

Draw 24.5% — — —

Away win 21.8% — — —

Over 2.5 53.4% — — —

Over 3.5 32.2% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 49.4% — — —

Away O1.5 24.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -0.8%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 54% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–0 10.7%

#3 1–0 12.3%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

BKMA1.8

Shirak0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BKMA · PPG 1.13

SHIRAK · PPG 0.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.84 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

BKMA (H) 53.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Shirak (A) 21.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

BKMA face Shirak in Armenia - Premier League on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives BKMA a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Shirak 22%, so BKMA are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for BKMA and 0.9 for Shirak (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, BKMA are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 0.71 for Shirak.

BKMA vs Shirak Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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