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Gandzasar vs Ararat-Armenia Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Regular Season - 1 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 16:00

Gandzasar

PPG 1.27 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ararat-Armenia

PPG 1.92 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap -0.51 - moderate Away edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-112.7%0-29.4%0-34.6%0-4+2.4%1 1-08.4%1-112.4%1-29.2%1-34.5%1-4+2.3%2 2-04.1%2-16.0%2-24.5%2-32.2%2-4+1.1%3 3-01.3%3-12.0%3-21.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.5% — — —

Draw 26.8% — — —

Away win 44.7% — — —

Over 2.5 50.4% — — —

Over 3.5 28.9% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 32.6% — — —

Away O1.5 47.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -0.8%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob52.6%

A 45% / xG 1.0-1.5 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–1 12.7%

#3 0–0 8.6%

#4 0–2 9.4%

#5 1–2 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gandzasar1.0

Ararat-Armenia1.5

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

GANDZASAR · PPG 1.27

ARARAT-ARMENIA · PPG 1.92

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.51 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Gandzasar (H) 28.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ararat-Armenia (A) 44.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Gandzasar face Ararat-Armenia in Armenia - Premier League on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gandzasar a 28% chance, the draw 27% and Ararat-Armenia 45%, so Ararat-Armenia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Gandzasar and 1.5 for Ararat-Armenia (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gandzasar are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.92 for Ararat-Armenia.

Gandzasar vs Ararat-Armenia Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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