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Noah vs Van Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Regular Season - 22 ·Monday, April 20, 2026, 12:00

Noah

PPG 2.09 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Van

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 88.5% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-11.2%0-20.3%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-06.9%1-13.9%1-21.1%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-011.4%2-16.4%2-21.8%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-012.6%3-17.1%3-22.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-024.2%4+-113.5%4+-23.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 88.5% 83.3% 1.20 +6.2%

Draw 8.1% 18.2% 5.50 -55.5%

Away win 3.3% 8.3% 12.00 -60.4%

Over 2.5 74.3% 69.0% 1.45 +7.7%

Over 3.5 54.1% 46.5% 2.15 +16.3%

BTTS 41.3% 51.8% 1.93 -20.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -20.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 81%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)3.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob41.3%

H 88% / xG 3.3-0.6 / O2.5 74% / NoBTTS 41%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 12.6%

#2 2–0✓ 11.4%

#3 4–0 10.5%

#4 3–1 7.1%

#5 5–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Noah3.3

Van0.6

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.3% · O3.5 PROB 54.1%

Form & verdict PPG

NOAH · PPG 2.09

VAN · PPG 1.11

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.09), Away AVERAGE (1.11) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Noah (H) 88.5%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV +6.2%

Draw 8.1%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -55.5%

Van (A) 3.3%

ODDS 12.00 · IMPLIED 8.3% EV -60.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Noah face Van in Armenia - Premier League on Monday, April 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Noah a 89% chance, the draw 8% and Van 3%, so Noah are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.3 for Noah and 0.6 for Van (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Noah are averaging 2.09 points per game versus 1.11 for Van. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +16.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Noah vs Van Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Armenia - Premier League Predictions