Today / Indonesia - Liga 1 / Semen Padang vs Persijap

Semen Padang vs Persijap Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Regular Season - 28 ·Monday, April 20, 2026, 08:30

Semen Padang

PPG 0.92 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Persijap

PPG 0.54 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.0%0-110.4%0-25.0%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.8%1-113.1%1-26.2%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.7%2-18.3%2-23.9%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.7%3-13.5%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.4% 45.5% 2.20 -4.5%

Draw 28.6% 30.3% 3.30 -5.6%

Away win 28.0% 34.5% 2.90 -18.8%

Over 2.5 37.9% 54.1% 1.85 -29.9%

Over 3.5 18.2% 31.3% 3.20 -41.8%

BTTS 43.9% 59.9% 1.67 -26.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -13.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob43.9%

H 43% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.8%

#2 1–1 13.1%

#3 0–0 11.0%

#4 0–1 10.4%

#5 2–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Semen Padang1.3

Persijap0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.9% · O3.5 PROB 18.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SEMEN PADANG · PPG 0.92

PERSIJAP · PPG 0.54

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.92) > Away POOR (0.54)

Win probability 1X2

Semen Padang (H) 43.4%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -4.5%

Draw 28.6%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -5.6%

Persijap (A) 28.0%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -18.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Semen Padang face Persijap in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Monday, April 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Semen Padang a 43% chance, the draw 29% and Persijap 28%, so Semen Padang are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Semen Padang and 0.9 for Persijap (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Semen Padang are averaging 0.92 points per game versus 0.54 for Persijap. This match finished 0-2.

Semen Padang vs Persijap Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Indonesia - Liga 1 Predictions