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Neptūną Klaipėda vs Babrungas Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Matchday 20 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 14:00

Neptūną Klaipėda

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Babrungas

PPG 2.22 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.1%0-118.0%0-210.1%0-33.8%0-4+1.3%1 1-011.4%1-112.8%1-27.1%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-04.0%2-14.5%2-22.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.0%3-11.1%3-20.6%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.7% — — —

Draw 30.0% — — —

Away win 40.2% — — —

Over 2.5 38.6% — — —

Over 3.5 21.1% — — —

BTTS 47.7% — — —

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 34.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -39.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob47.7%

A 40% / xG 0.7-1.1 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.1%

#2 0–1 18.0%

#3 1–1 12.8%

#4 0–2 10.1%

#5 1–0 11.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Neptūną Klaipėda0.7

Babrungas1.1

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.6% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

NEPTŪNĄ KLAIPĖDA · PPG 2.00

BABRUNGAS · PPG 2.22

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.41, combined xG 1.83 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Neptūną Klaipėda (H) 29.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Babrungas (A) 40.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Neptūną Klaipėda face Babrungas in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Neptūną Klaipėda a 30% chance, the draw 30% and Babrungas 40%, so Babrungas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Neptūną Klaipėda and 1.1 for Babrungas (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Neptūną Klaipėda are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.22 for Babrungas.

Neptūną Klaipėda vs Babrungas Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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