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Transinvest 2 vs Atmosfera Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Matchday 20 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 16:00

Transinvest 2

PPG 0.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Atmosfera

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-18.6%0-29.4%0-36.9%0-4+6.4%1 1-04.1%1-18.9%1-29.9%1-37.2%1-4+6.7%2 2-02.1%2-14.7%2-25.2%2-33.8%2-4+3.5%3 3-00.7%3-11.6%3-21.8%3-31.3%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.5%4+-20.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.1% 22.7% 4.40 +1.0%

Draw 21.7% 25.6% 3.90 -9.2%

Away win 55.2% 63.3% 1.58 -12.8%

Over 2.5 61.7% 69.4% 1.44 -11.2%

Over 3.5 38.7% 47.6% 2.10 -18.7%

BTTS 54.9% 66.7% 1.50 -17.6%

Home O1.5 30.2% 38.5% 2.60 -21.5%

Away O1.5 61.6% 69.4% 1.44 -11.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -39.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob54.9%

A 55% / xG 1.0-2.2 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 1–2 9.9%

#3 0–2 9.4%

#4 1–3 7.2%

#5 0–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Transinvest 21.0

Atmosfera2.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 38.7%

Form & verdict PPG

TRANSINVEST 2 · PPG 0.67

ATMOSFERA · PPG 1.86

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.16 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Transinvest 2 (H) 23.1%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +1.0%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -9.2%

Atmosfera (A) 55.2%

ODDS 1.58 · IMPLIED 63.3% EV -12.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Transinvest 2 face Atmosfera in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Transinvest 2 a 23% chance, the draw 22% and Atmosfera 55%, so Atmosfera are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Transinvest 2 and 2.2 for Atmosfera (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Transinvest 2 are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.86 for Atmosfera.

Transinvest 2 vs Atmosfera Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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