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FA Šiauliai II vs Žalgiris II Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Matchday 20 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 16:00

FA Šiauliai II

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Žalgiris II

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap -0.19 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-19.8%0-27.0%0-33.4%0-4+1.7%1 1-08.5%1-112.2%1-28.8%1-34.2%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.3%2-17.7%2-25.5%2-32.6%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.2%3-13.2%3-22.3%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.3%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.2% 34.5% 2.90 -3.7%

Draw 26.1% 28.2% 3.55 -4.4%

Away win 40.7% 49.5% 2.02 -17.8%

Over 2.5 53.2% 70.4% 1.42 -24.5%

Over 3.5 31.3% 49.0% 2.04 -36.1%

BTTS 54.5% — — —

Home O1.5 36.0% — — —

Away O1.5 42.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -39.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.5%

A 41% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 0–0 6.8%

#4 0–1 9.8%

#5 2–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FA Šiauliai II1.3

Žalgiris II1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.2% · O3.5 PROB 31.3%

Form & verdict PPG

FA ŠIAULIAI II · PPG 1.00

ŽALGIRIS II · PPG 0.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.19 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FA Šiauliai II (H) 33.2%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -3.7%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -4.4%

Žalgiris II (A) 40.7%

ODDS 2.02 · IMPLIED 49.5% EV -17.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

FA Šiauliai II face Žalgiris II in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FA Šiauliai II a 33% chance, the draw 26% and Žalgiris II 41%, so Žalgiris II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for FA Šiauliai II and 1.4 for Žalgiris II (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FA Šiauliai II are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.89 for Žalgiris II.

FA Šiauliai II vs Žalgiris II Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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