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Kauno Žalgiris II vs Jonava Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Matchday 20 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 16:00

Kauno Žalgiris II

PPG 0.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Jonava

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.8%0-114.7%0-28.5%0-33.3%0-4+1.2%1 1-011.6%1-113.3%1-27.7%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-05.2%2-16.0%2-23.5%2-31.3%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.6%3-11.8%3-21.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.9% 29.0% 3.45 +10.1%

Draw 29.0% 30.3% 3.30 -2.6%

Away win 39.1% 52.4% 1.91 -25.3%

Over 2.5 44.7% 56.5% 1.77 -20.9%

Over 3.5 24.3% 35.1% 2.85 -18.4%

BTTS 49.2% 59.9% 1.67 -17.8%

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 34.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -39.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob49.2%

D 29% / xG 0.9-1.2 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 12.8%

#3 0–1 14.7%

#4 1–0 11.6%

#5 0–2 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kauno Žalgiris II0.9

Jonava1.2

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.7% · O3.5 PROB 24.3%

Form & verdict PPG

KAUNO ŽALGIRIS II · PPG 0.67

JONAVA · PPG 1.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.25, combined xG 2.06 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Kauno Žalgiris II (H) 31.9%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +10.1%

Draw 29.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -2.6%

Jonava (A) 39.1%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -25.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kauno Žalgiris II face Jonava in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kauno Žalgiris II a 32% chance, the draw 29% and Jonava 39%, so Jonava are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Kauno Žalgiris II and 1.2 for Jonava (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kauno Žalgiris II are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.00 for Jonava.

Kauno Žalgiris II vs Jonava Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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